Uncertainty Framing and Decision Analysis

UNCERTAINTY FRAMING AND DECISION ANALYSIS
Subsurface-Consulting

Analyzing the effects of all uncertainty combinations in all reservoirs is not a realistic option. Therefore, a structured scenario-based approach has been developed to analyze and assess all potential factors influencing recovery schemes, reserves, and productivity. After evaluating the range of possible values and calculating the impact of each uncertainty, realizations were created to represent the range of possible values in each new reservoir. Field-scale equation-of-state models were used to simulate both primary depletion and gas reinjection. Development scenarios were optimized for each discrete realization. The resulting reservoir models serve as a basis for the development-concept selection.

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